I apply a very basic model based on the sold price/mean estimate ratio of works by specific artists, just to see how this compares to the eventual results. After the auction I will compare these revised estimates with their actual price.
Rufino Tamayo, Mujer Caminando, Christie's Lot 2 Sale 2446, estimate:70-90k, mean: 80,000
-5 works by Tamayo sold at the Sotheby's May 25th auction (N08794) had a combined mean estimate of $2,945,000 (lots 5, 8, 9, and 13) but sold for a combined $2,985,000. This gives a sold price/estimate ratio of 1.0136.
-Applying this to the mean estimate of Mujer Caminando provides an estimated sale price of $81,000.
Diego Rivera, Cargador, Christie's Lot 3 Sale 2446, estimate:35-45k, mean: 40,000
-2 works by Rivera sold at Sotheby's N08794 (lots 6 and 11) had a combined mean estimate of $1,100,000, but sold for a combined $1,259,00. This gives a sold price/estimate ratio of 1.144.
-Applying this to the mean estimate of Cargador provides a revised estimate of $45,800.
Matta, Thistles, Christie's Lot 33 Sale 2446, estimate: 150-200k, mean: 175,000
-1 work by Matta sold at Sotheby's N08794 (lot 4). It had a mean estimate of $800,000 but sold for $902,500, giving a price/estimate ratio of 1.128.
-This leads to a revised estimate of $197,400 for Thistles.
Considering how simple this estimate revision is, I am curious to see how it will compare to the actual results. ---Posted at 6:05 pm (NY time). (With only minutes to spare)
The Christie's catalogue is available here:
http://www.christies.com/LotFinder/searchresults.aspx?intSaleID=23055#action=refine&intSaleID=23055&sid=6235d15f-328a-4ded-a97d-7b31908ae219
The Sotheby's catalogue with results is available here:
http://www.sothebys.com/app/ecatalogue/fhtml/index.jsp?event_id=30498#/r=index-fhtml.jsp?event_id=30498|r.main=list.jsp?event_id=30498&pg=1&view=60&by=0&rhd=0.406032161321491/
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