Auction Guessing 1 (Part 2): Fallibility of Christie's and Sotheby's?

As you might imagine, my estimates for the works sold at Christie's were off by a substantial amount. The ratio of the actual price to the estimate provided by the auction house at Christie's was higher than at Sotheby's for two artists but lower for the third. If we assume that the market for Latin-American Art in New York City is fairly integrated, an assumption I believe is reasonable, what does it mean that their estimates were off in different ways?

I had assumed that the comparison between the actual prices and the estimates of the painting for both auction houses would simply reveal the difference between how the current market values the work and the "essential" or inherent value of the work.  But unless the demand for two of the artists increased drastically overnight while demand for the third dropped (possible?), it simply reminds us that no matter how knowledgeable one is, it is impossible to accurately determine an "essential" price.  Does this suggest there is no inherent value, only the value placed by the market?

Auction Guessing 1: Estimating the Results of Christie's Latin American Auction Based on Sotheby's

Sotheby's recently concluded its 2011 auction of Latin American art, with sessions on the 25th at 7 p.m. and the 26th at 10 a.m. In this post I use the results of that auction to estimate the forthcoming results of Christie's Latin American art auction, which has sessions on the 26th at 6:30 pm (NY time) and the 27th at 10 a.m.

I apply a very basic model based on the sold price/mean estimate ratio of works by specific artists, just to see how this compares to the eventual results. After the auction I will compare these revised estimates with their actual price. 

The 'Summer of Sequels,' Information Costs, and Museum Exhibits

Or: Why You Won't See a Nicolas de Largillière Exhibit, But May See Many of Joshua Reynolds.(1)

Costs of obtaining information incurred in consumption can explain both the recent prevalence of sequels and, at least partially, the choices by curators of museum exhibits. Consumers incur information costs in finding out a base level of necessary information about the movie or artist they are going to 'consume.'(2) Consumers incur less information costs when consuming something that has already become familiar to them, either through prequels or previous exhibits. Curators and movie producers, as experts in their field, are not as constrained by information costs as consumers. Instead the information costs of the consumers affect the choices of the 'producers' as they try to reduce barriers to consumption. Great curators attempt to introduce their audience to new artists or at least new aspects of these artists, but are still constrained by the willingness of their audience to incur information costs. 

Figure 1: Nicolas de Largillière, Elizabeth Throckmorton, 1729